Cup Series Atlanta DFS Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series is in Atlanta this week for their opening race of the playoffs. With the reconfiguration a few years ago at Atlanta, the track has been a superspeedway style race with the draft being huge in creating runs and pack racing. Handling will be a little more important than we saw at Daytona a few weeks ago but we should see a similar style of racing and big wrecks taking out top contenders.

Place differential is the most important factor in this type of racing and this week will not be any different. Drivers starting farther back in the field will have major upside compared to drivers starting up front since fast laps will be spread throughout the field and there will be many leaders in the race.

Place Differential Plays

Denny Hamlin

Brad Keselowski

Chase Elliott

Chris Buescher

Tyler Reddick

Christopher Bell

Martin Truex Jr

Ross Chastain

Bubba Wallace

Daniel Suarez

Ty Gibbs

All of these drivers start outside the top 15 on Sunday giving them solid place differential upside. These drivers are all on the aggressive side of things as well and should be racing towards the front as much as they can in the race. Whoever can miss the wrecks and end up in the top 5 or 10 at the end of the race of this group is likely going to be one of the higher point scorers on the slate.

Hamlin starts dead last as he had some kind of mechanical issue in qualifying. He will be the highest owned driver on this slate and for good reason, he is one of the best superspeedway drivers and has all the place differential upside. He will either be optimal or wreck, no in between. But he is likely to be 60%+ owned.

Guys like Elliott and Buescher may be less owned than drivers like Reddick, Bell, and Suarez just for the extra place differential potential from their starting spots.

All these drivers are great options for the race in Atlanta and should be mixed in your lineups as they have the upside for big point potential.

Fades

Ryan Blaney

Joey Logano

Kyle Larson

Michael McDowell

Austin Cindric

Todd Gilliland

Austin Dillon

Josh Berry

Harrison Burton

Daniel Hemric

Drivers starting up towards the front of the field have limited upside and should be limited in your lineups or faded completely. Since place differential is so important in this race, not having that potential hurts the upside for all of these drivers. Drivers starting in the top 10 would need to be one of the top finishers and dominator points to overtake the place differential points of someone starting mid pack. That is too much hope for and too big of a risk on drivers starting that high up so fading these drivers is the correct strategy in my mind.

I also included Harrison Burton and Daniel Hemric on this fade list as they start 12th and 14th. These are usually drivers that start outside the top 25 and are not considered top drivers of the sport. It will be difficult for them to stay up front and be a top contender. They likely would need a lot of wrecks and since they start higher up than usual, there are better options out there with more place differential potential to use that strategy.

Cheap Options

Erik Jones

Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Corey Lajoie

Justin Haley

Shane Van Gisbergen

Carson Hocevar

John Hunter Nemechek

Zane Smith

Cody Ware

BJ McLeod

This group of drivers are all priced under $7000 on Draftkings and have big place differential potential to move forward. They all start outside of the top 25 and with the draft being an equalizer for everyone in the field, they will all have an opportunity to stay in the draft and have a potential for a top 10. Drivers starting in the 30s should get a bump in ownership as well since they have the most place differential potential.

Another thing to consider with these drivers is that there are a few of them that will be more cautious and will likely ride in the back to miss the wrecks. This is a solid strategy to use like we saw at Daytona with Cody Ware getting a top 10. I would expect Ware, McLeod, and Yeley to be riding in the back most of the race and guys like Hocevar, Nemechek, Smith, and SVG to wait a while before they start racing hard as they seemed to not make their way to the big pack at the front until later in the race at Daytona.

Bonus Pick:

Ryan Preece

Preece starts in 21st this week which is a lot higher up than most of the cheap drivers he is priced around. I think this will cause him to be much lower owned than he should be. Starting mid pack is still good place differential if he can make it to the end and contend for a top 5. I think he will be a good play to try to differentiate your lineup in a big tournament.

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