NASCAR is in Bristol this weekend for all 3 series in action and the Cup Series is racing under the lights on Saturday night. This is the 3rd race of the playoffs and the cutoff for the first round so 4 drivers will be eliminated from the playoffs after this race. We had extreme tire wear in the spring race here but practice did not seem to have that this weekend. I expect tire wear to still be a big factor but we shouldn't see the tires going down and falloff as big as we had in the spring. We also got a longer practice session this weekend so we have a lot of laps from practice to go off of and determine who might be good this weekend. You will likely need at least two dominators and potentially three in your lineups this week as there are 500 laps of dominator points up for grabs in the race.
Potential Dominators
Kyle Larson
William Byron
Denny Hamlin
Alex Bowman
Christopher Bell
Larson had the best long run car in practice with the fastest 25 and 30 lap averages. He has a great history at Bristol and should be a top contender this week. He starts 2nd and should be the top option this week as he has the opportunity to lead early and often throughout the race. Byron was another car that had really good lap times in practice. He was right behind Larson in long run speed and should be a contender to run up front as well. Hamlin has been the favorite coming into the weekend and he didn’t show anything that stood out in practice but Bristol is one of his best tracks and I expect him to be good again this week. He needs a good run to move on to the next round of the playoffs as he is currently below the cut line. He should be fast in the race and will be a top option for DFS.
Bowman has not been a top option too many times this season but he starts on pole and had fast lap times on the long run like his teammates. He is a bit of a risk as I expect Larson to get to the lead early in this race, but if he can hold him off for a while, at Bowman’s cheap salary he could a great value dominator play this week.
Bell is a bit of a flier play this week as he didn’t show anything in practice and wasn’t at the top of the speed charts. But that is not unusual for him and he is great at Bristol usually. I would not be surprised to see him be a contender this week as well.
Place Differential Plays
Ryan Blaney
Ty Gibbs
Brad Keselowski
Kyle Busch
Josh Berry
Blaney had one of the best cars in practice as he was the fastest car on the 10, 15, and 20 lap averages. He qualified back in 22nd giving him a good amount of place differential potential to get in the race as he could have top 5 potential if he can back up his practice speed in the race. Ty Gibbs had some of the best overall lap times in practice. He has had one of the best cars in the last few Bristol races as he has led laps and racked up some fast laps in previous races. He starts in 13th so he doesn’t have huge place differential potential but I think he could be a real contender in the race and may be lower owned than he should.
Keselowski and Busch are options this week as they both have good history at Bristol and start in the second half of the field. Neither had great lap times in practice but they are good at managing tires and have good finishes at Bristol so I wouldn’t be surprised if either have top 10 potential.
Berry is a solid flier play for place differential this week as he starts 25th and had a top 10 car earlier this year at Bristol.
Cheap Options
John Hunter Nemechek
Erik Jones
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
Justin Haley
Zane Smith
Nemechek finished 6th at Bristol earlier this year, and even though we don't expect tire wear to be as bad, i think he should have a good run again this week. He qualified back in 28th and he had top 20 lap times in practice so he has some place differential potential in the race. His teammate Erik Jones had even better lap averages in practice and starts further back in the field ion 32nd. He has finished around 20th the last few races at Bristol so even a finish around there would be solid value for Jones at his salary. Bristol is one of Ricky Stenhouse's best tracks and I don't expect that to be any different this week. He finished 10th here a year ago and had speeds in practice around the top 10. He is a great value this week starting in 31st and should be able to move forward and be a good place differential play. Haley has had good speed this year in the 51 car and looked good in practice this week. He should have an opportunity to move forward starting back in 26th as he had lap averages close to the top 10 like Stenhouse. Zane Smith is an interesting play this week as both his teammates qualified in the top 10 but he qualified back in 33rd. He had speed in practice like his teammates so I would expect him to be much better in the race and is a great value play this week.
High Risk Low Owned Options
AJ Allmendinger
Bubba Wallace
A few options that could end up good plays but are on the riskier side of things are AJ Allmendinger and Bubba Wallace. Wallace had good speed in practice as he was between 3rd and 7th on lap averages in 10-30 lap runs in practice compared to others. He starts 11th and isn't a top driver you think of at Bristol. But if he carries that speed into the race and finishes around the top 5 he could be a solid value play at his salary.
Allmendinger is another option that will likely be low owned this week as he starts 19th and there are a lot of cheaper options that start much further back. He has a solid history at Bristol and could be a longshot play for a top 10 if things fall his way. I am not saying he is likely to be a great play but he is definitely an option to help differentiate your lineups as a low owned play.
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