Cup Series Daytona 500 DFS Picks
- RoundersKyle
- Feb 15
- 5 min read
The wait is almost over—NASCAR’s biggest spectacle, the Daytona 500, is set to roar to life this weekend, kicking off the 2025 regular season.
The Daytona 500 is not just NASCAR’s biggest race—it’s also one of the most unpredictable events in fantasy sports along with the highest payouts of the season for NASCAR DFS. With tight pack racing, frequent lead changes, and the ever-present threat of the Big One, building a DFS lineup for DraftKings and FanDuel requires a unique strategy. Unlike intermediate or short-track races, where dominators score big, superspeedway DFS success comes from a mix of value plays, place differential, and avoiding overexposure to drivers starting up front.
With the draft keeping speeds close and wrecks frequently shuffling the field, the best DFS plays often come from drivers starting deeper in the pack. Picking drivers starting 20th or worse gives you a better floor and upside. Unlike races on other tracks where dominators rack up points for laps led, Daytona sees frequent lead changes. No single driver dominates long enough to justify paying up purely for potential laps led.
Another factor to account for in DFS is that this is a race that you do not need to use all your salary in your lineups. The focus is place differential and it does not matter if you use all your salary or not. I prefer to leave salary as much as possible to try to differentiate my lineups.
Fades
Chase Briscoe
Austin Cindric
Bubba Wallace
Erik Jones
William Byron
Chris Buescher
Ty Dillon
To start off, the best strategy is to fade the drivers starting up front as they do not have place differential upside and leading laps just doesn't mean very much for this race. These are the drivers that start up in the top 7 and I will not be touching them in my lineups for DFS. Their upsides are too limited with their starting spots as even if they make it to the end and finish at the front they are likely to be outscored by drivers who have gained a lot of place differential points. The closer that drivers start to the front, the harder it will be for them to end up in the optimal lineup for DFS. If you do use some drivers starting in the top 10 or even the top 15, I would limit the drivers in your lineup starting that close to the front.
Top Place Differential Plays
Brad Keselowski
Alex Bowman
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
Daniel Suarez
Martin Truex Jr
Kyle Busch
Christopher Bell
Josh Berry
Ryan Preece
These drivers are all likely to be the top options for place differential in the Daytona 500. They all start towards the back outside the top 20 and have huge place differential upside if they can avoid the wrecks and make it to the end of the race. However, with their place differential potential they are likely to have high ownership as well in DFS contest. Drivers starting way in the back and in good equipment like Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Ricky Stenhouse, and Martin Truex are going to be some of the highest owned drivers and top targets for this slate.
Top Cheap Options
Noah Gragson
Justin Haley
Carson Hocevar
Cole Custer
Zane Smith
Jimmie Johnson
Helio Castroneves
There are numerous drivers that are priced towards the bottom of the player pool that are good options for the race. These drivers that have big place differential upside from their starting spots as they start outside the top 30. Anyone can win this race and drive to the front of the pack so starting in the back is not going to hurt these drivers chances very much. The biggest obstacle for the drivers at Daytona is missing the big wrecks that tend to happen throughout the race. If these drivers make it to the end of the race they will be some of the top scoring drivers of the race.
Another angle for the Daytona 500 is trying to estimate different drivers strategies that can give you positive correlation in your lineups. Some drivers tend to have a good track record in riding in the back of the pack for the majority of the race to miss the big wrecks. This usually gives them a good finish and scores them a lot of points in DFS making them solid plays anytime NASCAR goes to Daytona. However, since so many open cars showed up for this race, we don't have the usual back markers for this race. I would not be surprised to see the Spire Motorsports cars of Haley, Hocevar and McDowell to ride in the back for a portion of the race. I especially like Hocevar for this race as he has a good history of making it to the end and finishing well on superspeedway tracks recently. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Legacy Motorsports to do the same thing. But this is a riskier strategy this year due to the field being more unpredictable with their strategies as a result of what teams made the race.
Tournament Plays
Tyler Reddick
Todd Gilliland
John Hunter Nemechek
Cody Ware
Good tournament plays are going to be drivers that still have a little bit of place differential upside but do not start way in the back making them an obvious choice. Drivers starting 10th-20th are good options to mix in for tournament plays as they will have lower ownership and could go overlooked compared to drivers starting 25th or worst. Reddick, Gilliland, and Nemechek are some drivers that start a little higher than you want, but that should keep their ownership down and if they can end up in the top 3 at the end they could end up being great options.
Cody Ware is a driver that could be a great sleeper play for the Daytona 500. He is a driver that typically that starts in the very back and rides back there for most of the race to miss all the wrecks. I expect him to still ride on the back but he starts up in 28th which is higher than he usually starts and may scare away some people. I don't expect him to end up in the top 10, but he has before at Daytona and I think a top 15 is a reasonable expectation with the amount of wrecks Daytona tends to have. That would make him a solid play and a good point scorer for the race when he is likely to go low owned.
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