NASCAR is at Homestead this week with only 3 races to go in the 2024 season. We should see some of the best racing of the year as homestead typically provides great racing with the ability to run different lanes around the track. The 1.5 mile track creates high tire wear for the cars and drivers so we should have a pretty straight forward strategy for teams, 4 tire pit stops as often as they can. You will likely see 2-3 dominators in this race for DFS so picking those drivers that rack up the most laps led and fastest laps will be very important.
Potential Dominators
Tyler Reddick
Kyle Larson
Denny Hamlin
Tyler Reddick is one of the best drivers at running the high line so Homestead fits him well and is a great track for him. He was fast in practice, especially on the long run as he was 2nd on the 20 and 25 lap averages. He also went out in qualifying and got the pole so he has the track position to get a bunch of dominator points in this race. One of the main drivers he is going to have to battle is the driver starting next to him on the front row in Kyle Larson. Larson is always fast at Homestead and this week should be no different as he was good in practice again. I expect Larson to be a top contender and I would not be surprised to see Larson and Reddick battle at the front of the field all day. Another potential contender this week is Denny Hamlin as he had top 5 speed in lap averages throughout the run in practice. He is going to need a good run as well as he is 27 points below the cut line to move on to the championship race coming into this week. Christopher Bell is another potential play but I prefer these 3 drivers this week.
Place Differential Plays
William Byron
Ryan Blaney
Joey Logano
Noah Gragson
AJ Allmendinger
There are some great place differential plays this week with William Byron and Ryan Blaney. They start back in 20th and 25th and both have been good at homestead in the past finishing in the top 5 last year in this race. They both seemed good on the long run in practice with top 5 speed on 25 lap averages. Both will be great options for place differential in the race and should have top 5 upside. Logano locked himself into the championship race last week with his win so they are free to do anything they want this week to try to get another win. He didn't show much in practice but both his teammates were fast which is the same situation that we saw last week. He will be starting in the back as they have to fix a steering issue after qualifying but that shouldn't negatively affect him much for the race since he is already starting 26th. Gragson was one of the fastest cars in practice as he was at the top of the chart in lap averages throughout the run. He starts in 16th so he doesn't have a ton of place differential but if he can backup his practice speed he should have top 10 potential. Allmendinger is a bit of a flier as he didn't show much in practice but he has finished top 5 in the last two races at Homestead. He starts back in 32nd so he has a lot of place differential potential and could end up being a great option if he can have the kind of run he has had in the last two races at Homestead. Ross Chastain and Brad Keselowski are two other flier options but nothing jump out to me on either of them in practice.
Cheap Options
Austin Cindric
Austin Dillon
Michael McDowell
Zane Smith
Todd Gilliland
Cindric starts way in the back in 36th as he was loose in qualifying. He was much better in practice on the long run as he had top 15 speed after 20-25 laps. He should be able to move forward and should be a great option for place differential if he doesn't have any issues in the race. Dillon was not as good in practice as he was just ok, however he has finished in the top 10 in the last two races at Homestead. I don't have a great read on how he will perform this week but he starts 30th and if he can run close to as good as he has finished here the last two years he could be a good play. McDowell and Zane Smith both had really solid speed in practice and were steady throughout their runs in their practice sessions. They both start mid pack and could be good options especially since I expect them to be much lower owned than some of these other drivers that start more towards the back. Gilliland is another that had solid practice speed but he starts back in 31st so he has a lot of place differential potential. He is cheaper as he is priced under $6k on Draftkings so he could be a good value play this week.
High Risk Tournament Plays
Bubba Wallace
Chase Briscoe
These two plays of Bubba Wallace and Chase Briscoe are riskier tournament plays as they start up towards the front and are not usually guys you think of when the Cup Series goes to Homestead. However, both were happy with their cars in practice and the speed charts showed it as they both were really good on the long run. Wallace starts up in 8th and Briscoe starts in 13th so if either can run in the top 10 and potentially get some fast laps and have a chance at a top 5 at the end, they could be good picks to win a large tournament.
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