NASCAR is out in Las Vegas this week for the first race of the round of 8 as the playoffs continue for the Cup Series drivers. Las Vegas is a 1.5 mile track where we should see good racing and we have a good amount of comparable tracks from this season to go off of. In practice we saw the Toyotas and the Hendrick cars look really fast as we saw the Fords struggle and playoff driver Ryan Blaney crash and having to go to a backup car.
Potential Dominators
Kyle Larson
Denny Hamlin
Christopher Bell
Tyler Reddick
The 4 drivers that have been the most consistent and fastest drivers this season I expect to be the best cars this week. Larson comes in as one of the favorites as usual for that team and he had top 5 speed in practice with the 2nd best 15 lap average speed. He should be one of the contenders this week which is no surprise. Hamlin is one of my favorite plays this week. He was fast in practice on the long run and by a good amount as he was the fastest on the 20 and 25 lap averages. Now some drivers like Larson did not run 20 consecutive laps but I still expect Hamlin to have one of the best cars and a top contender to lead laps and potentially win the race. Bell on the other hand did not have the best lap times when looking at the speed charts. But he went out and got the pole in qualifying and in his interview he said he was really happy with his car in practice and how it felt. Bell doe not always show his speed in practice so I do think he will have a good car in the race and will have a chance to lead a lot early starting in that first spot. In the other spot on the front row Reddick will have the chance to battle Bell early in the race for the lead. Reddick did not make a super long run in practice but he was 2nd fastest in the 10 lap averages. He has been fast on a lot of tracks like Vegas this season and he finished 2nd here in the spring. He should be up front throughout the day and be one of the contenders as well.
Place Differential Plays
Ryan Blaney
Chase Elliott
Martin Truex
Kyle Busch
Daniel Suarez
Blaney crashed in practice so he will be starting dead last in a backup car for the race. That gives him huge place differential potential as you would expect a playoff driver like him to be able to run in the top 10. My only concern is that the Fords were not very fast in practice and he is going to be the highest owned driver on the slate. There is an opportunity to fade him in this spot but its a huge risk. I may consider going underweight on him but he is still a top option to put into lineups. Elliott and Truex are two plays that I really like this week as well. Both were very fast in the practice session as Elliott was the fastest on 15 lap averages and Truex was fastest on 10 lap averages and was 2nd behind Hamlin on 20 and 25 lap averages. Also both drivers start outside the top 10 with Truex in 12th and Elliott in 18th so they have place differential points to gain along with the chance for dominator points if they get to the front. I give the slight edge to Elliott as he has been a little more consistent lately and is a playoff driver so they will be doing everything they can to win. Busch is a little bit of a flier pick from me but I think he can have a good run this week with top 10 potential. He starts back in 20th so he has some solid place differential points to gain. He had speed in Kansas a few races ago and he was solid in practice. I think at his salary he can be a solid value play this week. Suarez has struggled a lot recently but his one good run in recent races was on a similar Kansas track with a 13th place finish. He finished 11th here in the spring and had around top 10 speed in practice. Starting 23rd he could be a solid play for DFS this week.
Cheap Options
Erik Jones
Todd Gilliland
Daniel Hemric
Ryan Preece
Erik Jones had solid speed in practice as he was 10th in 10 lap averages. He starts back in 27th and finished 14th here in the spring. He should have the chance to move forward and finish in the top 20 with upside for more. Gilliland starts back in 30th so he has a lot of place differential potential. I am not quite sure what to think of him this week as he has not had great 1.5 mile finishes recently. But he was the fastest Ford in 10 and 15 lap averages in practice and could be a great play if he can get to the top 20. Hemric is one of the cheapest drivers on the slate and has run better as of late. He was solid in practice and starts back in 33rd so he should be a solid value play this week. Preece is a bit if a flier as none of the Stewart Haas cars looked good in practice. But he starts the farthest back of all of them and finished 16th at Kansas so if he can have a decent race he could be an alright play.
High Risk Tournament Plays
Ty Gibbs
Zane Smith
I feel like this is a weekly pick now but we are at another track that I expect Ty Gibbs to be good at and could be a good value play this week. He starts in 8th so he will need some dominator points and a good finish but he did exactly that here in the spring with a 5th place finish. He also finished 5th in Kansas a few races ago and had speed in practice so I expect him to run in the top 10 this week and could have the potential to be one of the best cars.
Before the last handful of races if Zane Smith started 14th I would say that is an auto fade, but as we have seen recently, Spire Motorsports has had legitimate speed. He finished 10th at Kansas a few races ago and had top 10 speed in practice. He is a huge risk to play him starting 14th, but I think there is a chance he could get a top 10 and that would likely make him one of the top cheap plays this week.
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