The NASCAR Cup Series is in Michigan this week on the large 2 mile oval with only a few races left until the playoffs. They are having to dodge rain this week as there are scattered storms throughout the weekend but they were able to get some practice in on Saturday. However, qualifying was canceled so they are lined up based on the metric from last week so we have some drivers starting deeper in the field than they should.
Potential Dominators
Kyle Larson
Denny Hamlin
Ross Chastain
There was limited practice this week so it is difficult to decipher who has the best car and can lead a bunch of laps this weekend. Kyle Larson started his career being excellent on 2 mile tracks like Michigan and he is likely to be a top contender this week. He was 2nd in lap averages in practice and should be up front all race. There was not really anything we could take from the practice session for Denny Hamlin as he only ran 5 laps. But he starts on pole and he was expected to be one of the best cars coming into the weekend and I still think he will be one of the top contenders. Ross Chastain was one of the fastest cars in practice and was really happy with his car. He needs a good run and it looks like he has a car that can potentially lead laps and contend. Tyler Reddick, William Byron, and Chase Elliott are some other guys I wouldn't be surprised to lead some laps and contend as well. They all had good lap times in practice, they just don't have the best history here and it is hard to figure out who will be best to use for DFS so I will likely have a little exposure to each.
Place Differential Plays
Brad Keselowski
Martin Truex Jr.
Chris Buescher
Brad Keselowski was my favorite bet coming into the weekend and he had good lap times in practice. He was 7th in 5 lap averages and was 4th on overall lap times in practice. I think he can move through the field and run top 5 in the race. After last week I swore off Martin Truex for the rest of the season, but he was the fastest on lap averages in practice and it is going to be hard to not have any exposure to him again this week since he starts back in 24th. He was fast in practice last week and laid an egg in the race so there is a bit of buyer beware with him, but since he is starting mid pack he has the place differential and the speed to be one of the top options this week. The other RFK car of Chris Buescher won this race last year and starts back in 18th. He has some place differential potential as I think he can run top 10 and is a solid option for the race.
Cheap Options
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
AJ Allmendinger
Daniel Hemric
Erik Jones
Ricky Stenhouse had solid speed in practice and has had solid finishes here in the past. I think he has top 20 potential and with him starting 30th he is a solid place differential option. AJ Allmendinger looked good in practice and had a top 20 average running position in the race here last year. I think he could have top 20 upside for the race this weekend and starts almost last. His teammate Daniel Hemric was a real surprise on the speed charts in practice with top 10 lap average speed. I don't know how much I trust that but he starts back in 32nd and is one of the cheapest options in the slate so he has the potential to be a huge value play. Erik Jones has a great history at Michigan and starts back in 28th. That team has struggled at times this season but he was solid in practice and could be a solid play for DFS.
High Risk-Low Owned Tournament Play
Bubba Wallace
This is a pretty big risk of a pick since Bubba Wallace starts 5th, but he had speed in like with some of the other fast Toyotas in practice and is priced cheap enough that he may not need to lead laps to end up in a winning lineup. If he can get some fast laps throughout the race and finish top 5 he is a solid value play and could be a good option for tournaments.