Cup Series Phoenix DFS Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series season comes to an end this week as we have finally arrived at the Championship weekend in Phoenix. The final 4 drivers going for the championship are Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, and William Byron. Phoenix is a flat style track and the Cup Series raced here earlier this season in the spring. Drivers also got a longer practice session this week as they had a complete 50 minute session on Friday and qualified on Saturday. We should be in for a good race to end the season as we head into the off season and a few month break from NASCAR.

Potential Dominators

Ryan Blaney

Denny Hamlin

William Byron

Joey Logano

Christopher Bell

Martin Truex

Blaney looked like the best car of the Championship 4 in practice as he was the fastest in the 5, 10, and 15 lap averages in the session. He is not only the favorite for the championship this week but I expect him to one of the top contenders throughout the race and have a chance to be in the battle to win the race. However he got loose in qualifying and starts back in 17th so he has some room to move forward with place differential points as well. Hamlin was another driver that looked really good in practice, he was right behind Blaney in 10 and 15 lap averages and was the fastest on the 20 lap averages. Hamlin had 33 fast laps and led 68 laps here at Phoenix in the spring earlier in the year. He starts outside the top 10 but I expect him to get up front in the race and be a top contender in the race. Byron and Logano are two other championship contenders that had top 5 speed in the practice session. Based on practice I would expect them to be Blaney's top threats to battle for the championship. They also were better in their qualifying laps so they start in 8th and 2nd. They should be running up front throughout the day and have a chance to lead laps early as I expect them to try to get the lead early. Logano will especially have a chance to lead early starting on the front row. This is one of Christopher Bell's best tracks and coming into the week I expected him to have a good chance to be a dominate car this week. He didn't show anything crazy in practice but he was solid, so I am still not counting him out. That will probably keep his ownership down with so many expensive plays this week so he could be a good tournament play if he is indeed a top contender in the race. Truex went out and got the pole so he will have a chance to lead a chunk of laps early. He was good in practice and will try to get a win in his final start as a full time driver.

Place Differential Plays

Brad Keselowski

Chris Buescher

Bubba Wallace

Josh Berry

Austin Dillon

The RFK cars of Keselowski and Buescher both finished in the top 5 here in the spring at Phoenix and they both start in the 20s this week. They have struggled qualifying recently but it does worry me too much, they should be able to move forward and run in the top 15 with upside to run towards the front. They both should be solid place differential plays this week. Wallace had good speed in practice but starts back in 29th on the field so he has a lot of room to move forward. He has ran in the 10-15th place range the last few races at Phoenix and I would expect him to have the same potential this week making him a solid value play. Berry spun in qualifying so he starts in the back and has huge place differential potential for the race. He was solid in practice and he should move forward quite a bit and be a great option for DFS in the race. Dillon did not show anything special in practice but he was the best car at a very similar Richmond track before the playoffs. He starts back in 36th so he has huge place differential potential and can be a good play this week if he can stay on the lead lap early and move forward.

Cheap Options

Carson Hocevar

Michael McDowell

Erik Jones

Zane Smith

Hocevar has had great speed the second half of the season and I expect that to continue for the final race. He had close to top 10 speed in lap averages in practice and he should have upside for a top 10 in the race. He does start 15th so he doesn't have a ton of place differential points to get but that could keep his ownership low as well. McDowell got loose on his qualifying lap and lost time so he starts farther back than he should have and has a lot of place differential to gain. He was not amazing in practice but he was solid and has ran well at Phoenix in the last few trips here. Jones has run well here in recent races and starts in 19th so I don't think he will be highly used like some other drivers. I think he could be a good tournament play and run in the top 15 making him a good value for this weekend. Zane Smith is another Spire car and he had solid top 20 speed in practice. If he can keep his car clean and get track position he could have solid place differential potential starting in 28th. Ryan Preece and Todd Gilliland are other good flier plays that start in the back of the pack this week.

As we go into the offseason for NASCAR, I will be taking a bit of a break but will do some NFL post periodically, as well as our usual UFC plays/bets weekly. But I will be working on some stuff in the offseason for next season to increase my NASCAR content even more.

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