The Cup Series is back after their 2 week Olympic break and we are at the short flat style track of Richmond. We have the new tire options this week that we saw in the All Star race earlier this year. Tire wear is going to be huge this week and the tire option could throw a wrench in things even more. Whatever drivers can save their tires on either set throughout a run are going to be the drivers staying at the front. Also with the tire option it makes deciphering practice times even more difficult to figure out who has a good car this week.
Potential Dominators
Martin Truex Jr
Denny Hamlin
Chase Elliott
Truex and Hamlin were two of the top cars in the spring with Hamlin winning and Truex leading the most laps. They backed it up in qualifying as both of them are starting on the front row. I like Truex slightly better as he seemed a little better in practice but I expect both to lead laps and be top contenders in the race. After those two it is difficult to pick who is going to be a top contender. The Hendrick cars didn't go out right away in practice so their lap times don't look as good and is not an indication of their cars. Chase Elliott I think will have a solid car and he starts up front so he will have track position and the chance to lead if he does indeed have a fast car. Chris Buescher and Tyler Reddick looked solid in practice and are good values priced more mid range if they can end up running top 5 and getting some dominator points.
Place Differential
Brad Keselowski
Ross Chastain
Michael McDowell
Keselowski is great at saving his tires and he showed some of that in practice as he had better lap times than others and less fall off later in the run. He starts back in 29th and should have top 10 potential in the race making him a good option. Chastain is a bit of a wildcard this week because if you look at lap averages in practice he looks like one of the best cars, but because of the tire options you can't necessarily trust all of that data. The eye test during the broadcast people were not impressed with his speed. I am not sure what to think, he starts 22nd so he has some place differential potential. My best guess is he runs most of the race around 10th or so. McDowell I expect to do some off strategy things which will likely get him some more fast laps than usual and if things fall right he could end up with a good finish. He is a bit of a risk because of this but starting back in 28th he has some big place differential potential.
Cheap Options
Daniel Suarez
Justin Haley
Ryan Preece
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Suarez led the lap averages in practice on the 20-30 lap averages. Some of the tire differences definitely had some to do with that, but I still think he is going to have a solid car for the race and top 15 potential. Haley has had some good runs this year and starts almost last. He should be a safe option and be able to move forward in the field for some solid place differential points. I really like Preece as a cheap option this week as he has some solid finishes here before but what I liked about him in practice is he moved up the lap averages chart the longer the run he did. Stenhouse is in the same boat as Preece, he had better lap averages later in the run and has some big place differential potential starting back in 33rd.
Value Play
Bubba Wallace
I loved Bubba Wallace coming into this week and after practice and qualifying I like him even more. He was one of the few in practice that started on the harder compound tire which is slower to start, and he still had top 10 lap averages. He starts up in 8th so hopefully that keeps his ownership down but i still expect him to have a decent amount of ownership. I think he runs in the top 10 all day with upside to run top 5.
High Risk-Low Owned Tournament Plays
Josh Berry
Berry has been great at Richmond as he had an 8th place average running position here in the Spring and finished 11th and finished 2nd last year in the Spring. He qualified 3rd and should have a chance to run in the top 10 all day and he could be a good value play that is low owned since he starts so high up.
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