Cup Series ROVAL DFS Picks

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to a lot of teams home base in Charlotte for the road course race at the ROVAL. This is the last race in the round of 12 so we will have some drivers focused on the cutoff to make it to the next round. The Roval got a little bit of a redesign this year so it is a little bit of a different track than we have seen in the past which could play a factor in the racing and potentially leading to more chaos. But because of the new track design the teams got a longer practice session this week which will help us determine who are going to be some of the best cars this week.

Potential Dominators

Shane Van Gisbergen

AJ Allmendinger

William Byron

Kyle Larson

Tyler Reddick

SVG is the best road racer in NASCAR right now and he should be one of the top contenders in the race this weekend. He was one of the fastest cars in practice and looks like he is going to be hard to beat this week. The win is the only thing that matters to him so he should have a chance to lead a lot of laps. Allmendinger is also only worried about getting the victory and is one of the top road racers in NASCAR. He had speed in practice and should run towards the front throughout the race. Byron is one of the few playoff drivers that is locked into the next round so he does not have to worry about points. He was fast in practice as he had top 5 lap times in practice and could be a threat to battle for the win this week. Larson is one of the best full time cup drivers on road courses and I expect him to be a contender again this week. He was one of the better cars in practice and has a big buffer in points to where he just needs to not wreck or have an issue. He could choose to get stage points in stage 1 but that would likely lock him in and he could choose not to get stage points in stage 2 to set himself up for a top 5 finish and a chance to win at the end of the race. Reddick is another top road racer in the Cup Series and he starts on the front row next to SVG. He was solid in practice and I expect him to run up front in the race. The only concern is he is slightly above the cutoff line for the playoffs so he could be stage racing and not have track position for the final stage.

Place Differential Plays

Michael McDowell

Chris Buescher

Martin Truex Jr

Ty Gibbs

McDowell was not as fast in practice as we are use to seeing him on road courses in recent years. He also went out and qualified mid pack in 21st so he has a good amount of place differential potential to move forward. The hope is he is better in the race and the long run like he usually is, as he typically has at least top 10 potential on road courses. Buescher won at the last road course the Cup series went to at Watkins Glen and usually is good on these tracks. He was alright in practice but went and qualified 29th so he has a lot of place differential potential. He should be able to move forward and should be a solid option for DFS this week. Truex did not have a good qualifying run as he starts back in 30th. He is typically a good road racer in his career but hasn't done great this season on them. But with him starting so far back and not a playoff driver having to worry about points, he is a good place differential option this week. I liked Gibbs coming into the week but he didn't show much on practice. Neither did any of his teammates so they could be setup for long run speed. He is a good road racer and starting 19th he could be a good place differential pick if he can get to the top 10 and have upside for more.

Cheap Options

Noah Gragson

Justin Haley

Carson Hocevar

Zane Smith

Gragson had solid speed in practice as he was 16th in 5 lap average in practice. He messed up in qualifying on his first run so he had worn tires for his fast lap time and starts back in 32nd. He has a lot of room to move forward and has had some good finishes on road courses this year so he is a good place differential option. Haley did not look great in practice which is a little surprising as his teammates both had speed and Haley has been a solid road racer in his career. He starts way back in 33rd so I would expect him to be able to move forward and be a good cheap place differential option. Speaking of Haley's teammates Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith are potential options to use as well. They start 20th and 23rd so there is some risk but they both finished top 5 at the last road course. They had solid speed in practice and could have top 15 potential for the race.

The other cheap options are fliers that start in the back and have big place differential potential. Drivers like Josh Berry, Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, John Hunter Nemechek, and Kaz Grala. These drivers other than Grala have not been that good on road courses and generally struggle on them. The hope for them is they get track position throughout the race and since they start in the back they have a lot of place differential points to get if they can get a good finish at the end. Grala is a solid road racer but he is not in great equipment, but he could be worth a flier.

Fades

Denny Hamlin

Alex Bowman

Ryan Blaney

Hamlin, Bowman, and Blaney all have 25-30 point buffers above the cut line for the next round of the playoffs. I expect them to race for stage points to protect that buffer in both stages which will give them bad track position for the final stage and is going to really hurt their chances to get a good finish at the end of the race. Due to this I am not using any of them as I don't see them getting a good finish and being top point scorers for DFS.

High Risk Tournament Plays

Austin Cindric

Cindric had some of the fastest lap times in practice in the sessions they had. He is a good road racer and will need a win to get to the next round of the playoffs. He starts towards the front in 5th and if his car is as good in the race as it was in practice he could be a potential dominators. But we have seen speed from Cindric in practice before and it not translate to the race for him. Also if he is up front late in the race he is going to have a high chance of catastrophe with a bonzi move since he needs a win.