The NASCAR Cup Series is the final race of the weekend in Talladega as they race on Sunday for the second race of the round of 12 for their playoffs. The race will likely be a race of survival for the playoff drivers as we regularly see big wrecks and chaos at the superspeedway tracks. The racing will be tight and in big pack for a lot of the drivers and any wrong block at the wrong time can create the big one.
The strategy for this race, as it is for all the super speedways, relies on the place differential and picking drivers that have the highest upside for place differential potential and finishing towards the front. Dominator points are not important this week as they are likely to be spread throughout the field with so many lead changes.
Top Place Differential Plays
Chris Buescher
Christopher Bell
Alex Bowman
Martin Truex Jr
Bubba Wallace
Ross Chastain
Daniel Suarez
Chase Briscoe
Ricky Stenhouse Jr
Place differential is the most important factor in drafting style tracks and these drivers all have big place differential potential and will likely be some of the highest owned drivers this week. Buescher has great history at drafting tracks and starts in 20th giving him good place differential potential. Bell I am a little concerned about as he has a buffer to the cut line in the playoffs and could decide to ride around to not risk losing a ton of points in a wreck. But he is a top driver in top equipment starting in the back half of the field. Bowman, Truex, Wallace, and Chastain are all top drivers starting outside the top 20 that will likely race to the front throughout the entire race making them great choices for DFS this weekend. Suarez, Briscoe, and Stenhouse will also we high owned drivers this week as they all start in the 30s so they have some of the largest place differential potential making them top options this week.
Fades
Michael McDowell
Austin Cindric
Todd Gilliland
Kyle Busch
Ryan Blaney
Joey Logano
Austin Dillon
Harrison Burton
Daniel Hemric
Due to place differential being so important, the drivers that start up front have real limited upside and have a more difficult path to being one of the top point scorers. The chances of a driver starting at the front around the top 5 ending up optimal is very slim which means the strategy I believe is the best route is fading the drivers that start at the front of the field. I will not be using any of the drivers starting in the top 5 in my lineups due to this. The way qualifying played out as well has Dillon, Burton, and Hemric starting in the top 10 in which I do not think using them in lineups is worth the risk either. They all are drivers that are not the top in the series and when they run well on these tracks it is when they are hanging in the back to miss wrecks and can get a good finish at the very end of a race. Starting in the top 10 eliminates their upside and there is almost a guarantee of drivers that start towards the back of the field will outscore them even if they end up with a top 5.
Cheap Options
Justin Haley
AJ Allmendinger
Erik Jones
Carson Hocevar
Corey Lajoie
John Hunter Nemechek
Zane Smith
Anthony Alfredo
Cody Ware
BJ McLeod
JJ Yeley
There are also a lot of cheap drivers that start towards the back and have huge place differential potential. These drivers may not get to the front very fast or get up front for a lot of the race, but if they can avoid the wrecks they can be some of the top point scorers on the slate. Some of these drivers will try to race to the front in the big pack all day, while others may choose to ride in the back the whole race until the very end to miss the wrecks and get a good finish. It is hard to predict each teams strategy but the 4 cars that usually ride in the back are Alfredo, Ware, McLeod, and Yeley as they are smaller teams that don't want to wreck a car. If there are big wrecks and a lot of cars that end up out they could be good plays this race. The other cheap options are great plays as well as they all have big place differential potential but if they race in the pack they are at a bigger risk of getting caught up in a wreck. Whatever drivers make it to the end of the race and can get a top 10 are likely to be some of the top point scorers.
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