NASCAR is in Atlanta this week for another superspeedway style race that will surely be action packed. This is the first race of the NASCAR playoffs for the Cup Series and the Xfinity Series is in action as well with 3 races to go until their playoffs start.
The reconfigured Atlanta races like a superspeedway where the draft is of utmost importance and this will give everyone a chance to win just like we saw at Daytona. It will be another week that will be difficult to predict but handling will be more important here than at Daytona so we could see less underdogs running up front in comparison. Either way it is still a good week to go for some longshots in your bets and other plays.
At Atlanta we will have a similar strategy to all the other Superspeedway races. We want to pick drivers with the biggest place differential potential as the lap leaders will change frequently and the fast laps will be spread throughout the field. We are likely to have several large wrecks due to the pack racing so finding the drivers that start towards the back and have the best chance to miss wrecks and finish up front will be the key.
Cup Series
Over the last 3 races at Atlanta there ended up being roughly 20-26 drivers still on the lead lap at the end of the race. Which is a little more than we have seen at Daytona. I expect there still to be a good amount of wrecks and stacking the back is still the right strategy. However, there may be less of a chance for back marker drivers like BJ McLeod or Cody Ware to get top 10 finishes. The good news for the Cup Series is there are only a few of those drivers in the race and most of the drivers will be able to get up front and be a contender at the end of these races. Most drivers starting outside the top 15 will be viable plays with drivers starting outside the top 25 being some of the most popular plays since they will have the place differential upside. Having a minimum amount of drivers starting in the top 10 or fading them all together has proven to be the better strategy on these superspeedway tracks.
The early week bets for this week I have taken are again only going to be longshot plays for this week since the drafting tracks are so unpredictable. But we hit some big top 10 bets at Daytona that hopefully we can repeat:
John Hunter Nemechek Top Toyota +3300 (Bet365)
Nemechek was running up front in Daytona towards the end of the race until he got caught up in a late incident. Getting him at 33-1 odds here is great value especially when there are only 7 other Toyota cars in the field that he needs to beat. One accident can take most of his competitors for this bet out which is a solid play at these odds.
We are still waiting for other Sportsbooks to post their odds and we are waiting on top 10 odds to be posted everywhere as well. Once those are posted we will update with any other plays we like for this week.
Xfinity Series
For the Xfinity race they have had more accidents and things happen in their recent Atlanta races as they have only had 14 and 17 drivers on the lead lap in their last two races. But they are still having their top drivers finish at the front and they haven't had the surprise underdog winner like the Cup Series has had. This is likely a week that is good to have a mix of drivers in your Xfinity lineups, ones that will be running up front and contending with other top drivers, and guys that are more likely to be cautious and ride in the back and end up with a top 15 finish when they avoid the wrecks. This week is all about place differential and having your drivers finish up front at the end.
We are still waiting for Sportbooks to post their Xfinity Series odds for this week. We will update with any bets we like once those are known.
Check out the driver stats for previous races at Atlanta:
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