UFC 301 PrizePicks Breakdowns

Vitor Petrino OVER 10 Min of FT

Undefeated Brazilian Vitor Petrino will be looking to prove that he deserves a number next to his name when he takes on the former Light Heavyweight title contender, Anthony “Lionheart” Smith.

In this matchup, I believe it makes more sense to expect this fight to go past two rounds. Both fighters are low-volume strikers and don’t possess one-shot KO power like other LHWs. Petrino is also a willing wrestler who averages over three takedowns per fight. Both fighters are also credentialed grapplers in their own right; Petrino is a BJJ Brown Belt and Smith is a BJJ Black Belt. If the fight gets to the ground, I expect both fighters to nullify each other’s grappling, which would stall this match. Both statistically and stylistically, I predict that this fight will go over 10 minutes, which is my favorite prop of the night.

Caio Barralho OVER 10.5 Min of FT

In another Veteran vs. Rising Contender bout, Paul Craig will be taking on Caio Borralho in an intriguing matchup.

I say intriguing because to be transparent, Caio Borralho isn’t the most exciting fighter. His main game plan is to take his opponent down and smother them like a wet blanket for three rounds. If he can’t get his opponent on the ground, he circles around the octagon, looking for counterstriking opportunities.

The X-Factor in this matchup is Paul Craig himself. On his back, Craig is a dangerous submission artist with 13 out of 17 wins coming by way of submission. If Borralho takes the fight to the ground, this will provide Craig with several opportunities to secure a submission from his back. On the other hand, if Borralho avoids the ground and keeps the fight standing, Craig has poor submission defense and can be susceptible to a clean shot.

That being said, the value still lies in the OVER 10.5 minutes of fight time due to Borralho’s style. He is a low-volume striker. Unless he lands something very clean, I wouldn’t expect him to finish Craig. If he manages to get the fight to the ground, Borralho is a BJJ Black Belt himself. I imagine he has the technical skills to maintain defensive solidity while on top, making this one of my preferred plays for the evening.

Jonathan Martinez UNDER 79.5 Fantasy Score

In a surprise return from retirement, Jose Aldo will be taking on a rising contender in Jonathan Martinez. I’m not a fan of fighters returning from “retirement”; however, the general consensus is that Aldo wants to box but needs to fight out the last fight in his UFC contract in order to be a free agent, so I have to assume he has been training since walking away from the UFC.

In this matchup, my preferred play is Jonathan Martinez UNDER 79.5 Fantasy Score. Outside of a finish, Martinez has very few opportunities to score. This is a striker-vs.-striker matchup, and it would be highly unlikely that either fighter will utilize their offensive wrestling, which limits any points earned from offensive TDs and TDs defended. Jose Aldo also has a historically high striking defense at 60%, and Martinez doesn’t necessarily overwhelm his opponents with output.

The X-Factor in this fight is Jonathan Martinez’s leg kicks. He typically sets up his finishes with his leg kicks. What makes this matchup interesting is that Jose Aldo is one of the few fighters who have learned to check calf kicks and leg kicks, which would nullify Martinez’s offense. At 79.5 FS, Martinez would need to land 100 significant strikes in a decision win minus any points scored from wrestling/grappling, which will be minimal. As of the time of my writing this post, there aren’t any odds in terms of this fight going to DEC; however, the general consensus is that this fight will go to DEC, making the UNDER 79.5 FS my second favorite prop for this weekend’s events.