***All of these props can be found on DraftKings Sportsbook***
3U - Stewart Nicoll @ -185 & 0.5U - Stewart Nicoll Win by SUB @ +450 (Added 08/17 @ 5:30PM EST)
Stewart Nicoll is set to make his UFC debut against the gritty Jesus Aguilar. Nicoll, an undefeated prospect, will be fighting in his home country. He primarily excels as a grappler, holding a Black Belt in BJJ. However, if the fight stays on the feet, he has proven capable of striking with his opponents, using those strikes to set up his takedowns. On the other hand, Aguilar is known for pressing forward and looking to land heavy shots. His cardio is strong, and he’s relentless no matter where the fight takes place.
That being said, Aguilar makes several mistakes, particularly on the ground. He has a habit of attempting guillotines, which might work against regional-level opponents but not against UFC-caliber fighters like Nicoll. This tendency often puts Aguilar on his back, causing him to lose rounds, especially if his opponent quickly defends. When Aguilar is on the bottom, grapplers can easily transition to half-guard, mount, or even take his back—something that Nicoll is likely to exploit.
Looking at fight footage, Nicoll typically uses his strikes to back opponents against the cage before taking them down. If he doesn't manage to do that, he capitalizes on his opponents’ momentum to time his takedowns and get the fight to the ground. Once there, Nicoll’s transitions in grappling are impressive, showcasing his daily Gi training.
Nicoll initially opened as a -225 favorite, but the line has tightened to -185, possibly due to Aguilar’s 1.5 lb weight miss, which doesn’t concern me. I also see great value in Nicoll winning by submission at +450, given Aguilar’s tendencies on the ground.
2U Li Jingliang @ +270
Carlos is a rising contender with impressive reach, accuracy, and excellent takedown defense (TDD). He's set to face Li Jingliang, a seasoned UFC veteran with 17 fights under his belt, who is returning after a two-year hiatus following a controversial decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez.
This matchup is intriguing as it pits a UFC veteran against a fighter riding the momentum of two devastating knockout victories. Prates, with a style reminiscent of Anderson Silva, is a calculated counter-striker who patiently waits for his opponents to make mistakes. In contrast, Li Jingliang is an aggressive pressure fighter who constantly moves forward, seeking to finish his opponents. This clash of styles often results in an exciting fight.
However, I find it hard to justify Prates’ current odds of -375. I’ve never been a fan of counter-strikers who rely heavily on knockouts. Prates has secured 14 of his 19 wins by KO/TKO, and he’s only reached the third round in 4 of his 25 professional fights. Betting on Prates means expecting him to win by knockout or TKO against an opponent who has never been knocked out in 27 professional fights.
So, why am I backing Jingliang? The value is there. Despite his two-year layoff, Jingliang's style matches up well against low-volume counter-strikers because it typically wins rounds. I anticipate Jingliang will control the center of the octagon and apply pressure, which will likely impress the judges. This fight also marks a significant step up in competition for Prates. The X-factor here is whether Jingliang is still in top form after his layoff. I initially took this bet at +270, but it’s now at +295 on DraftKings Sportsbook, offering substantial value considering Jingliang’s style, pace, and the level of competition.
4U - Li Jingliang OVER 34.5 SS @ -115
Since I've already placed a value bet on Jingliang, I'll get straight to the point. Prates has a counter-striking style and tends to wait for his opponents to make a move. He was even outlanded by Trevin Giles, who is known for being a low-volume striker.
On the other hand, Jingliang is aggressive and throws strikes at a high rate. Prates has shown that he’s hittable, mainly due to his lack of head movement from his Muay Thai background. Jingliang has landed over 34.5 significant strikes in 11 of his 17 fights, and the only times he’s missed this prop were when he scored a knockout.
While Prates is skilled and capable of limiting damage, he also tends to absorb a few shots. This fight will likely stay on the feet since both are primarily strikers. Although Jingliang might attempt a takedown, Prates has demonstrated his ability to keep the fight standing. This is my favorite significant strike prop of the night and offers great value at -115.
2U - Tom Nolan OVER 28.5 Significant Strikes @ -115
If you've read my article on my favorite prop bets for Pick’em style games like PrizePicks and Underdog, you'll know how much I love betting on Tom Nolan’s significant strike (SS) props. So, let’s get straight to the point.
Nolan’s SS projection is usually set below 30 for a couple of reasons: he’s often faced lower-level competition, and he has shown durability issues in the past. When you're a big favorite with multiple KOs on your record, the public tends to assume you'll finish the fight in the first 2.5 minutes.
That said, I always bet the OVER on Nolan’s SS count if it's under 30, and here’s why. Nolan is a high-output fighter, at least for as long as his fights last, averaging over 10 SS per minute. His high output comes from focusing on low-damage strikes like jabs and teep kicks, which still count as “significant” according to the stat counters. While he’s been finishing opponents recently, if you look at his early pro and amateur record, you’ll see that he often went to decisions against fighters who wouldn’t come close to making it to the UFC.
Nolan may be a significant favorite in this fight, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to knock out his opponent in a Francis Ngannou-style blitz. He’ll likely jab and teep his way to a finish, but not before landing a solid number of strikes. At -115, I’m always willing to take the bet that Nolan will land more than 30 significant strikes.
1.5U - Ricky Glenn OVER 31.5 SS @ -115
Ricky Glenn is likely nearing the end of his career, coming off two KO/TKO losses to Drew Dober and Christos Giagos. In his next fight against Song Kenan, he’ll be facing a lower level of competition.
The main risk in this fight is clear: Glenn could get knocked out. Kenan doesn’t win because of superior skill; he wins by landing more damaging strikes. He’s recorded knockdowns in 5 out of his 9 UFC fights, including a notable one against Ian Garry.
However, it’s worth noting that Kenan’s UFC victories have come against opponents with a combined record of 1-10 in the organization—a concerning statistic. Additionally, he has only a 50% striking defense rate and has absorbed over 100 significant strikes in each of his last three UFC fights. On the other hand, Glenn has shown in the past that he can be a high-volume striker, or at least attempt a large number of strikes.
Yes, Kenan could potentially knock Glenn out—he’s dropped Ian Garry, which has earned him a lot of praise. But his other knockdowns have come against lower-level UFC talent. I believe Glenn will survive long enough in this fight to land 32 or more significant strikes and hit this prop at -115.
0.25U - Herbert Burns R1 @ +1400; 0.25U - Herbert Burns R2 @ +1800
These are long-shot props that don’t need much explanation. Burns is a significant underdog with his only path to victory likely being an inside-the-distance finish. He’s a BJJ expert who consistently looks for takedowns. While he has a tendency to fold when things don’t go his way, when he’s on point, he usually secures the finish early, often in the first round.
Jenkins, a BJJ black belt himself, should theoretically be able to survive, but he’s been taken down before and has two submission losses on his record. I'm hoping this fight goes to the ground and lasts long enough for an interesting outcome.
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