Tom Nolan OVER 27.5 SS
Tom Nolan’s significant strike prop has long been a favorite of mine. As a high-volume striker, Nolan frequently faces lower-level regional opponents, which often leads to quick finishes and lower significant strike projections. However, his consistent output makes the OVER 22.5 significant strikes (SS) an appealing bet.
Nolan delivers offense at a high rate, using his reach to land strikes like teep kicks and jabs effectively. Despite his finishing ability, he doesn’t possess the kind of knockout power that would significantly reduce his strike count. Notably, his first two professional fights went the full 15 minutes, and three of his amateur bouts also went to decision, highlighting his ability to sustain activity over time.
On platforms like PrizePicks or in pick'em games, I strongly favor the OVER 22.5 SS prop. The key variable here is how well Alex Reyes can withstand Nolan’s offensive pressure. While Nolan has been close to exceeding this number in past fights, he has either achieved a finish or been finished before hitting the projection. Given Nolan’s track record and fighting style, taking the OVER on this prop is a worthwhile risk.
Mateusz Gamrot UNDER 49.5 SS
As someone who closely examines metrics, a strike count projection of 49.5 strikes for Gamrot seems unusually high given his fighting style. Gamrot is known for his focus on controlling opponents on the ground rather than seeking finishes. In fact, he often plays a more conservative role, aiming to wear his opponents down and capitalize on their mistakes—sometimes described as being a "wet blanket."
This predictable approach is reflected in his UFC performance, where he has only exceeded his strike projection 3 out of 9 times, with one of those fights being a grappling-heavy 5-round bout. In this matchup against Dan Hooker, Gamrot will likely look to exploit his advantage by taking the fight to the ground, as Hooker is more proficient on the feet.
While Hooker boasts an 80% takedown defense rate (TDD), his experience against top-level wrestlers has been limited primarily to Islam Makhachev, a fighter he lost to without significant shame. However, earlier in his career, Hooker has struggled against opponents with strong wrestling backgrounds.
Given Gamrot’s tendency to strike at a low volume and his preference for controlling fights on the ground, it is reasonable to take the under on his strike count projection. Gamrot’s strategy will likely involve minimizing his exposure to damage by focusing on wrestling and top control, rather than engaging in striking exchanges. Considering Hooker’s historical difficulties with wrestlers, betting the under on Gamrot’s strike count is a sound approach.
Junior Tafa OVER 70.5 FS
This fight between Tafa and Walker is straightforward, featuring a clear striker-versus-grappler dynamic. In this matchup, Tafa's path to victory hinges on his ability to defend takedowns. If he can successfully keep the fight standing, he has a strong chance of scoring a knockout against Walker. Conversely, if Walker can take Tafa down and maintain control for three rounds, he is likely to secure a win.
However, it's a significant challenge for Walker to sustain wrestling pressure for the full duration of the fight. His wrestling skills are not particularly exceptional, and Tafa has previously demonstrated his ability to defend takedowns, as seen in his fight against Mohammed Usman—a more physically imposing opponent than Walker. Usman’s success was largely due to his superior cardio, whereas Walker has shown issues with his endurance in past fights.
With a projected fight stat of 70.5 FS, the line is set for Tafa to win inside the distance. To be transparent, this prop may not offer the best value. Tafa’s straight win is priced around -110, while his win inside the distance (ITD) is likely around +120. Therefore, it's advisable to approach this prop with caution, considering the potential risk versus reward.
***UPDATE*** Carlos Prates OVER 40.5 SS
(Pivot to Li JingLiang OVER 34.5 SS) - View Breakdown Here
Prates has earned a Performance of the Night bonus in his last two fights, but his recent performances haven't been particularly impressive. Against Trevin Giles, he absorbed twice as many strikes as he landed, despite Giles being known for his low volume. In his fight against Charles Radtke, Prates landed only 15 significant strikes in nearly 5 minutes of action.
Now, Prates is stepping up in competition to face Li Jingliang, who is returning from an almost 2-year layoff. Despite my reservations about Prates' recent form, I’m considering the over for his significant strikes (SS) projection because of the stylistic matchup and the level of competition. This fight is expected to be a striking battle, and the aggressive nature of the Leech will force Prates to engage more actively.
Even though I’m not fully sold on Prates, he is a skilled striker with precise technique. The key factor for Prates hitting the over on 40.5 significant strikes is the Leech’s durability. Li Jingliang has never been knocked out in his 27-fight career, though he’s coming off a lengthy layoff that might contribute to some ring rust. However, ring rust typically doesn’t affect a fighter's chin significantly, making this a relatively low-risk proposition.
Given the striker-versus-striker dynamic and the Leech’s durability, landing over 40.5 significant strikes seems quite achievable for Prates. This makes it a prop worth considering.
***UPDATED PROPS***
Written Breakdowns can be viewed HERE
Li Jingliang OVER 35.5 SS
Ricky Glenn OVER 31.5 SS
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