Emily Ducote OVER 84.5 Fantasy Score
In the first fight of the night, Emily Ducote will face Vanessa Demopoulos, known for her pole dancing background, in what promises to be a high-offense, no-defense bout. Ducote is a significant favorite, and rightfully so; she has a clear advantage in striking and holds a BJJ Black Belt, which can counter Demopoulos’s primary path to victory—submissions.
For this matchup, PrizePicks offers two props: Ducote over 83.5 Significant Strikes (SS) or over 84.5 Fantasy Score (FS). Both options are solid, but my preferred play is Ducote over 84.5 Fantasy Score.
Ducote is expected to win this fight, and I believe her chances are even better than the odds suggest. She has consistently demonstrated the ability to score fantasy points through her volume and defensive wrestling. Demopoulos has been outstruck in 6 out of her 7 UFC fights and has poor defensive statistics—43% striking defense and 30% takedown defense. These weaknesses often lead to finishes, and Ducote's powerful striking further enhances this possibility. However, even without a finish, Ducote's volume and takedown defense should allow her to surpass 84.5 Fantasy Points. To achieve this, Ducote would need to win and land at least 107 Significant Strikes (assuming she doesn’t fails to score points by any other means) a feat she has accomplished in 3 of her last 4 fights. Thus, the preferred play is Ducote over 84.5 Fantasy Score.
Tom Nolan OVER 25.5 Significant Strikes
Unfortunately for Tom Nolan, he suffered his first loss as a heavy favorite against Nikolas Motta. Now, he faces DWCS alum Victor Martinez in what promises to be an exciting striker vs. striker matchup.
Nolan entered his last fight with significant hype, boasting 3 first-round finishes in 6 professional fights and impressive size for a lightweight. However, I believe the hype may not be fully justified. While his striking is solid, his knockout power seems overrated. His first two pro fights went the full 15 minutes against opponents with a combined 1-5 record. Additionally, 4 out of his 6 amateur fights reached the third round, suggesting he doesn't possess the KO power many assume.
Despite lacking knockout power, Nolan compensates with high volume. In his two UFC fights, he averages over 10 Significant Strikes (SS) per minute. Although this rate is unsustainable, had he survived against Motta, he would have exceeded his projection significantly. The same applies to this fight; unless there’s an early finish (which is possible but unlikely), I expect Nolan to easily surpass 26 Significant Strikes, making this my favorite prop of the card.
Adrian Yanez OVER 53.5 Significant Strikes
Coming off back-to-back losses, Adrian Yanez is aiming to get back in the win column against Vinicius Salvador, who is also seeking redemption after two consecutive defeats.
This striker vs. striker matchup features a relatively low threshold of 53.5 Significant Strikes (SS) for a fighter like Yanez, who averages 6.15 SS per minute over 8 UFC fights. The main concern is Yanez's power, coupled with Salvador's tendency to keep his hands low and his move up a weight class.
Despite this, the matchup is favorable for Yanez to exceed his projection. His boxing skills, Salvador's defensive weaknesses, and the opposite stance matchup, which protects Yanez’s legs from the leg kicks that troubled him in his last fight, all play to his advantage. The key factor will be whether Salvador can last long enough for Yanez to reach his projection. I believe Salvador will be tough enough to endure. Thus, the preferred play is Adrian Yanez over 53.5 Significant Strikes.
Lerone Murphy OVER 1.5 TDs
Rising contender, Lerone Murphy, will be taking on UFC Veteran, Edson Barboza, in a matchup to see if Lerone Murphy is ready to be showcased in the division.
With Barboza, we know to expect high level striking, flashy kicks, and an exciting matchup on the feet. On the other side, we have Lerone Murphy who is a lot more calculated and will take the fight wherever he feels is his optimal path-to-victory.
Being said, my preferred prop is Lerone Murphy OVER 1.5 TDs. This fight is projected to go 4 rounds which gives him plenty of time to land 2 TDs. Murphy also has high fight IQ and will shoot for TDs at the end of the round to secure it, and is clearly facing a dangerous striker. My prediction is that Murphy will use R1 to calculate distance and timing, then really look for his opportunity to take Barboza down who has shown to be susceptible to TDs. Murphy OVER 1.5 TDs is a realistic prop and one that I can see hitting early.
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