Karine Silva OVER 0.5 Takedowns
Karine Silva will be taking on Ariane Lipski in a back-and-forth matchup between two strikers. Interestingly enough, there is a lot of value in Karine Silva’s 0.5 TD prop as it makes sense both statistically and stylistically.
Looking at the numbers, Silva averages 2.45 TDs per fight. That being said, this number is a little skewed as her fights typically last longer than one round; however, she has attempted at least one TD per round in each of her fights, and Ariane Lipski has shown a weakness in her TDD in previous fights. This fight is also expected to last at least 2 rounds which gives Silva plenty of time to land at least 1 TD.
This is also a striker vs. striker matchup. The technical analyst in me carries the school of thought that strikers will be more willing to wrestle in these types of matchups. This is also consistent based on Silva’s previous fights. When the striking is close, Karine Silva will shoot for traditional TDs and chain them well. She has shown this in both her UFC fights as well as her regional bouts. She is also a willing wrestler which makes her OVER 0.5 TD prop one of my favorite props for this weekend’s fight card.
Ryan Spann OVER 17.5 Significant Strikes
Ryan Spann will be taking on Bogdan Guskov (who bears a striking resemblance to Anthony Smith) in a fight that will likely end inside the distance.
Statistically, this is a difficult proposition to consider. Combined, both fighters have been in 35 out of 48 fights that ended inside 1 round. They are both relatively hard hitters and have abysmal striking defense.
That being said, their lack of defense and fighting styles are why I prefer Ryan Spann’s OVER 17.5 significant strikes. On paper, Spann is a grappler; however, he doesn’t attempt many takedowns. Instead, he prefers to keep the fight standing until it somehow finds its way to the ground. He is also the longer, rangier fighter, often utilizing jabs and teep kicks, which are considered low-damage significant strikes.
Looking at Spann’s opponent, Guskov lacks head movement and keeps his hands low, leaving him vulnerable to getting hit with these shots. Additionally, he is primarily a striker, providing Spann with more opportunities to land significant strikes on the feet. Furthermore, Guskov is relatively durable. Although he was dropped by Oezdemir, he wasn’t knocked out cold. Spann possesses power, but not a devastating knockout punch. If Spann lands cleanly, I believe Guskov could survive long enough for Spann to accumulate a few more significant strikes before securing the finish. 17.5 significant strikes is a relatively low number for this style of matchup, making the OVER my preferred play.
Jhonata Diniz OVER 16.5 Significant Strikes
Former Glory Kickboxer Jhonata Diniz will be facing off against former NFL player Austen Lane in what is likely to be another striker vs. striker matchup in the heavyweight division. Similar to Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov, the statistics wouldn’t support the OVER on Significant Strikes; however, the stylistic matchup adds value to this proposition.
Diniz, a former Glory Kickboxer, has faced KO/TKO defeats four times in his 16-fight career. That being said, Diniz doesn’t possess the knockout power typical of many heavyweights. He peppers his opponents with strikes until he can land the big shots. This trend is evident in his previous fights and is also reflected in his Glory Kickboxing record, where 6 out of 14 fights have gone to decision. While Lane may lack technical skills, he has been knocked out by fighters who deliver powerful shots (such as Greg Hardy and Justin Tafa). Diniz primarily throws jabs and straight shots, which are less damaging. With the Significant Strikes set at 16.5 in a striker vs. striker matchup, I prefer to take the over and bet on Lane absorbing at least 17 strikes before being stopped.