Wang Cong OVER 55.5 Significant Strikes
Chinese kickboxer Wang Cong is set to make her UFC debut against Victoria Leonardo, a four-fight UFC veteran, and enters as one of the biggest betting favorites on the card.
Wang Cong, an undefeated striker in both kickboxing and MMA, has a clear speed and technical edge over her opponent. Meanwhile, Victoria Leonardo, with more MMA experience and a tougher fight schedule, will aim to leverage her experience to overcome Cong.
Given this matchup, my top PrizePicks play is for Wang Cong to land over 55.5 significant strikes on Leonardo. Leonardo, who isn’t quite UFC-caliber, will likely try to take the fight to the ground, but her lack of technical skill in doing so, combined with her tendency to absorb more strikes than she lands, often leads to her taking significant damage and losing decisions. I expect Cong to be precise in her striking, gradually increasing her output as she finds her range.
The biggest unknown in this fight is whether Wang Cong can get back to her feet if taken down. While this remains unclear, Leonardo has had difficulty controlling her opponents on the ground in the past, so I anticipate Cong will be able to stand up and keep the fight on the feet, where she can surpass 55.5 significant strikes.
Edmen Shahbazyan OVER 31.5 Significant Strikes
After starting his UFC career with a 4-0 record, Edmen Shahbazyan experienced a significant downturn but recently bounced back with a knockout victory over AJ Dobson. Now, he’s set to face submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert (GM3) in a classic striker vs. grappler matchup.
Shahbazyan has the clear advantage in speed, technique, and power on the feet. Although he began his training as a grappler in childhood, he's now known primarily for his striking. On the other hand, GM3 holds a distinct advantage in grappling. His approach often involves absorbing several shots before eventually bringing the fight to the ground. It’s not the prettiest strategy, but it has been effective for him in the UFC.
My preferred prop for this fight is Shahbazyan to land over 31.5 significant strikes. Shahbazyan’s game plan is straightforward: keep the fight standing, use his reach to pick GM3 apart, and aim for the knockout. While GM3 will be trying to close the distance and bring the fight to the mat, he’ll likely take some hits in the process. I favor Shahbazyan to reach the 31.5 significant strikes mark because he’s an accurate striker, and GM3 has shown vulnerabilities in his stand-up defense. Although GM3 has demonstrated toughness and durability, which could allow him to absorb 32 strikes before getting finished, the odds favor Shahbazyan reaching this prop more than half the time, making it one of my top plays for the night.
