4U - Wang Cong OVER 51.5 Significant Strikes @ -115
Cong, a skilled kickboxer, has a clear speed and technical advantage over Leonardo, who frankly, isn’t UFC caliber. Leonardo absorbs a lot of strikes, lacks technical wrestling, and simply isn’t on the same level as Cong.
Cong has demonstrated solid takedown defense in past fights and will aim to keep this fight standing. Her patience and precision in striking will minimize the risk of getting taken down, as she avoids overcommitting to her shots. The key factor in this fight is how quickly Cong can get back to her feet if she does get taken down. While she’s shown in training and regional bouts that she can do so, Leonardo does have more MMA experience. Despite this, I’m confident enough to put 4 units on Cong’s significant strike numbers.
2U - Dennis Buzukja OVER 54.5 Significant Strikes @ -115; 1U - Dennis Buzukja ML @ +150
Dennis Buzukja is a well-rounded fighter with solid boxing skills, decent takedown defense, a strong chin, and a relentless fighting spirit. He trains at a top camp alongside fighters like Merab Dvalishvili and Aljamain Sterling. Initially, Buzukja was set to face Danny Silva, but Silva withdrew, and Francis Marshall stepped in on less than a week's notice.
On the other hand, Francis Marshall is a young fighter with a background in wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. His game plan typically involves taking the fight to the ground, securing back control, and going for the choke. However, Marshall faces several challenges—he's stepping in on short notice after a year-long layoff, and his primary job as a firefighter means he has to balance training with a demanding full-time career. Moreover, his level of competition has been lower than Buzukja's, both in the UFC and on the regional circuit.
Considering these factors, I see value in two bets: Buzukja to land over 54.5 significant strikes and Buzukja to win at +150. Both fighters are hittable, and Buzukja prefers to keep the fight standing. He was already preparing for a wrestler in Danny Silva, so he should be ready for Marshall's takedowns. Additionally, Marshall tends to start slow and absorbs more strikes than he lands, making it plausible for Buzukja to take the first round. While there are uncertainties about Marshall's development during his time off, I find value in both lines, leaning slightly toward Buzukja’s significant strikes, but I'll have action on both.
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