The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Atlanta this week for another drafting style track where we should see close racing and a high likelihood of big incidents. With the reconfigured Atlanta, the racing we see is similar to a superspeedway where there will be tight packs in the draft which usually produces more wrecks. We also will have the fast laps spread throughout the field and there will be several lap leaders in the race. Due to this we will once again be focused on place differential for our picks and strategy this week. I will also avoid drivers starting up towards the front since place differential points are going to be so important this week.
Top Place Differential Plays
Parker Kligerman
Sammy Smith
Corey Heim
Brandon Jones
Ryan Sieg
Parker Retzlaff
Jeb Burton
All of these drivers start farther back in the field and have place differential upside. These drivers should be the guys that are racing towards the front throughout the race and will have the opportunity to get a top 10 finish whether there are wrecks or not in this race. There are not any top drivers starting way in the back so the 10-20 range is where a lot of the top equipment place differential options are. This is not as big as place differential upside as we have seen in the past so you might be able to use more drivers that start top 15 than usual. Kligerman, Smith, and Heim will likely be popular picks but we should have too many drivers that are really high owned that start towards the back.
Fades
Jesse Love
Taylor Gray
Cole Custer
Austin Hill
Sheldon Creed
AJ Allmendinger
Ryan Truex
All these drivers start up front and the strategy on these superspeedway type tracks is to avoid using them as much as possible. Their upside is limited since they don’t have the place differential potential that others have and the likelihood of them getting enough dominator points is minimal. They each would need a top 3 to end up in a winning lineup and I prefer to use drivers with the place differential upside that may not need to finish as high up. If you want to use drivers starting up front I would limit your use to 1 or a max of 2 in a lineup.
Cheap Options
Matt Dibenedetto
Kyle Weatherman
Jeremy Clements
Kyle Sieg
Ryan Ellis
Leland Honeyman
Garrett Smithley
All these drivers start towards the back of the field and have big place differential potential. A lot of those drivers will be more cautious and may ride in the back to miss the wrecks. This could get a lot of these drivers good finishes and top 15 potential in the race. But if there are not many wrecks they may not get up in the field to race. I will say using these drivers may be riskier than Daytona as there is a chance we don’t have as many wrecks or the multitude of drivers in each wreck.
I expect drivers like Dibenedetto, Weatherman, Clements to race more and try to get towards the front in the race. I also think they will be some of the highest owned drivers on the slate with their place differential potential. Guys like Smithley, Sieg, Ellis, and Honeyman could be more cautious to miss the wrecks and may only be top plays if we get a ton of wrecks.
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