The NASCAR Xfinity Series is in Bristol tonight for a Friday night race under the lights. This is the last race for the Xfinity Series before their playoffs begin next week. There is not much of a battle at the cutoff line as Ryan Sieg is 43 points back from Sammy Smith, so all the guys under the cut line will need a win tonight to make the playoffs. They did apply some traction compound on the bottom of the track this morning so we will have to see how that affects the racing.
Potential Dominators
Justin Allgaier
Chandler Smith
Cole Custer
Allgaier is great at Bristol as he won this race last year and is always one of the fastest cars here. He showed speed again in practice as he had the fastest 10 lap average and had top speed throughout his run in practice. He is likely going to be the top dominator option tonight as he should be up front battling for the lead all race. Chandler Smith was the other top car in practice as he was the fastest driver in 15-30 lap averages in the practice session. He has been great on short tracks this season and should be running up all night as he starts on pole and should lead laps early. Custer is another driver that has run well at Bristol in the past and had a lot of speed in practice. He had top 5 lap times throughout the lap averages and went out in qualified 2nd. He should have a chance to run up front all race and could be a potential dominator this week if he can outrun Allgaier and Smith.
Place Differential
Sheldon Creed
Dale Earnhardt Jr
Ryan Truex
Riley Herbst
Parker Retzlaff
Shane Van Gisbergen
There are a ton of place differential plays tonight as a lot of the usually fast drivers that should run well start outside the top 10. Creed has been great almost every week lately and he will look to keep it going this week at Bristol. He had around top 5 lap average speed in practice and starting 14th gives him some room to move forward. Dale Jr is in the race tonight as he has run the Xfinity race at Bristol the last few years. This may be his last race in the series so I am sure he will want to go out on a positive. He starts back in 13th and like Creed he had around top 5 speed in practice so he should be a solid play for tonight's race at his salary. However, he will likely be high owned just on name recognition alone.
Truex was alright in practice but didn't show the speed you would expect from that car although he was solid on the longer run. Starting back in 16th gives him room to move forward and the hope would be he gets better in the race and can move up and battle for a top 5. Herbst had solid speed in practice and has some good runs at Bristol. He starts back in 15th but I think he will run in the top 10 tonight so he could be a solid pick.
Retzlaff got really loose in qualifying so he starts way back in 27th. He had speed in practice with top 15 lap averages in the 5 and 10 lap runs so he should be a great place differential option to move forward with top 15 potential. SVG is a bit of a wildcard this week as Bristol is very different than any track he has raced at before. He starts back in 34th but should get better as the race goes on and should be able to move forward at least to the top 25 but his ceiling this week will be a little bit of a mystery.
*Sam Mayer would usually be another good place differential play but I think his salary is too high for how good he is going to be compared to others tonight. He would have to be one of the best cars and contend for the win and I don't see that happening tonight.
Cheap Options
Josh Williams
Brennan Poole
Kyle Sieg
Logan Bearden
Josh Williams apparently can't figure out qualifying as he seems to start towards the back every week and he starts back in 32nd tonight. He had alright speed in practice and I would expect him to have top 20 potential in the race. Brennan Poole didn't have a good qualifying lap either so he starts back in 29th giving him solid place differential potential. He usually has top 20 potential but wasn't quite that good in practice. I would say he is going to run top 25 and could have potential for more which could be solid with the limited cheap options tonight. Kyle Sieg actually had some really good lap times in practice with top 20 speed on the lap averages. He starts in the back in 36th so he has a ton of potential to move forward and score place differential points, making him a solid cheap play for tonight. Bearden is a solid flier play tonight as he is in a decent car, starts in 35th, and should run in the 20s tonight based on the speed that car has.
High Risk Low Owned Tournament Play
Parker Kligerman
I like Kligerman tonight as a play that I think will go overlooked as he starts 11th and there are several drivers that usually run better that start behind him. I think the ownership will go to those drivers like Dale Jr, Sammy Smith, Ryan Truex, and Austin Hill. Kligerman had top 3 lap averages in the 5, 10, and 15 lap average speeds in practice. I would not be surprised for him to sneak into the top 5 at the end of the day and be a good lower owned play for this race.
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