The Xfinity Series is back this week for their first race since the Olympics break as they head to the large 2 mile speedway in Michigan. This is a high speed track and they have slowed down the Xfinity car package this week compared to last year here, so based on practice this might turn more into a drafting race. A lot of the drivers were saying this is going to be a mix of Indy and Daytona- Handling will be important with the speed like Indy, but also the draft will be a factor to get slingshots around other cars and they will have to work with others to get runs. We had practice and qualifying today on Friday and the race is tomorrow afternoon on Saturday. With the new package and so many unknowns for this week, the Xfinity race and our picks could be a bit of a crap shoot.
Potential Dominators
John Hunter Nemechek
Chandler Smith
Sheldon Creed
Cole Custer
Riley Herbst
Nemechek is always a threat when he is in a Gibbs car and this weekend should be no different. He was fast in practice, won the Michigan Xfinity race last year, and should be running up front throughout the race. Nemechek's teammate Chandler Smith was also fast in practice as he was fastest in 10 lap averages and he should be a contender in the race. Another Toyota in Sheldon Creed is fast as well. He was in the top 5 in lap averages in practice and went out and sat on the pole so he has a chance to lead laps early. The Stewart Haas Fords I expected to be really good tomorrow for the race. Cole Custer and Riley Herbst were good on the high speed track in the same package type at Indy but they were just ok in practice. I still think they will run well tomorrow but it could be hard to predict who will be the best car this week. Note that because the drafting is expected to be such a factor, laps led and fastest laps could be spread out more through the field and dominators may not be as important this week.
Place Differential
Justin Allgaier
Austin Hill
Parker Kligerman
Shane Van Gisbergen
With a lot of the drivers saying the race is going to end up being pack racing, place differential is going to be huge this week like a superspeedway. Any of the top drivers starting outside the top 15 are going to have a chance to be optimal if they make their way to the front and stay out of trouble. Allgaier and Hill are going to be popular plays with their place differential potential, as they are good on drafting tracks and generally are good on larger handling dependent tracks as well. Both are great picks for tomorrow. Kligerman is another solid option starting back in 22nd. He seemed happy with his car and should have top 10 potential. SVG is a bit of a risk as he is still learning oval tracks, but he has gotten some good finishes on some ovals recently and the draft should be an equalizer for him and his shortcomings on ovals.
Cheap Options
Matt Dibenedetto
Josh Williams
Parker Retzlaff
Cheap Flier Plays
Brennan Poole
Ryan Ellis
Josh Bilicki
Joey Gase
Some of the cheap salaried drivers could be good options this week if this does turn into a drafting reliant race and if we see some big incidents because of it. Dibenedetto historically is good on drafting tracks and starts back in 31st. He could be a great option for this week. Williams starts back in 29th this week and is in a Kaulig car that is usually good on drafting tracks so he is a usable option. Retzlaff has had top 15 speed a lot this year and his car looked steady in practice. He could be an under the radar option starting back in 26th.
For the cheap flier plays all these guys are options as they start at the very back of the pack so they have huge place differential potential. They all are also in cars that have had some decent finishes in races this season so they could easily have top 20 potential if there are some wrecks that we usually see at drafting tracks.
High Risk-Low Owned Tournament Plays
Ryan Sieg
Jeb Burton
Sieg starts up in 7th and isn't someone that you usually see battling for the lead and leading a bunch of laps. However, he was fast in practice and usually runs well on these type of tracks. He should be low owned since he is starting up in 7th and there are so many options that start farther back than him.
Burton I think will go overlooked as there are so many bigger place differential potential drivers that are priced around him. He was good in practice and I expect him to have top 10 potential for the race. Since there are so many place differential options around him he should have lower ownership than he probably should with his potential.
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