NASCAR heads back to North Carolina this week for the last road course of the season on the schedule at the Charlotte Roval. This is the last race of the round of 12 for the Xfinity Series so we will have a handful of drivers focused on points more than anything this week. Drivers will have to decide if they want to go for stage points or go for the win as having track position in the last stage is going to be key to finishing up front. The Roval has a little different layout this year with more tight turns so we could see a little more carnage this year based on what some of the drivers think.
Potential Dominators
Shane Van Gisbergen
AJ Allmendinger
Sam Mayer
Josh Bilicki
SVG is the far favorite coming into the weekend and for good reason. He has dominated road courses since coming into the series and this week should be no different. He needs a good run to move on to the next round so he will be doing everything he can to win and be one of the top contenders in the race. He was fastest in practice and starts on pole so he is going to be hard to beat this week.
Allmendinger has been one of the top road racers in NASCAR over the last several years. He is undefeated in the Xfinity Series at the Roval winning all the races he has ran here, so he should be a top contender in the race and be a threat for the win against SVG. He was another one of the top drivers in practice and should be a good option for DFS today. The only potential concern for AJ is he may go after stage points which would put him behind for the final stage.
Mayer had lap times in practice to rival SVG as they were two of the fastest cars in the longer session they had today. Mayer has been good on road courses in recent races and is another driver below the cut line to move on to the next round of the playoffs so he is going to need a good run. He should be a top contender throughout the race.
Josh Bilicki was one of my favorite bets coming into the weekend as he is a good road racer and is in Joe Gibbs equipment for this race which he usually is not in. He was solid in practice as he was the best non playoff car on the speed charts and is starting towards the front. I think he is a great pivot off some of the top drivers and will be there at the end to capitalize if some of those drivers get together at the end of the race.
Place Differential Plays
Parker Kligerman
Alex Labbe
Austin Green
Kligerman is great on road courses and has been one of the most consistent drivers on them with a long string of top 10 finishes on them. He had top 5 lap average speed in practice and should be going for the win as is the the farthest back in points of the playoff drivers so he is likely to be on the right strategy to get a good finish. He starts back in 22nd so he has a good amount of place differential potential to move forward and be a good option for the race. Labbe is a road course specialist and seemed happy with his cars balance in practice. He starts 19th so he doesn't have a ton of place differential potential but he is guaranteed to not worry about stage points and could have top 10 potential at the end of the race. Green is also a road course specialist and he has some really good runs on road courses this season. He has finished 7th, 15th, 4th, 10th, and 11th on road courses this season. He starts in 17th so he has some room to move forward and is a solid option for today.
Cheap Options
Ryan Sieg
Josh Williams
Jeb Burton
Sage Karam
Preston Pardus
There are limited cheap options this week as there were not many of the lower tier drivers that were very fast in practice. Sieg has some solid results on road courses and starts back in 25th giving him some solid place differential potential. He is a good value this week as he will look to stay out of trouble and get a good finish at the end of the race. Williams and Burton are solid plays on road courses when they can make it to the finish. They both have some DNFs on recent road courses but also have some top 15 finishes. If they can stay out of trouble they could be solid place differential plays at their price. Karam is a bit of a flier play as he has a lot of road course experience in his career but he is in questionable equipment. He starts back in 28th so he has some place differential potential if he can make it to the end without any issues and should have top 20 potential. Same kind of goes for Pardus, he is good on road courses but he has had a lot of mechanical issues when he has ran this car in the series.
Fading Playoff drivers with a point buffer:
The Drivers that have a buffer on points above the cut line concern me in that they will be racing for stage points meaning they will not have track position for the final stage and will likely hurt their chances to finish up front. Those drivers include Austin Hill, Sheldon Creed, Riley Herbst, Cole Custer, and Jesse Love. I think all of them could finish the stages for both stage 1 and 2 to get the points and not pit before the stage ends like the winning strategy will be. This likely puts them outside the top 15 at least to start the final stage meaning they will be stuck in traffic and will have a difficult path to get a top 5. I will likely not be using any of these drivers because of this and there are better options that will not be going for stage points.
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