NASCAR heads to one of the last few road courses on the season at Watkins Glen. The Xfinity Series only has two races left before they start their playoffs. We have a lot of past data to go off of as the Xfinity Series has gone to a lot of road courses over the past couple of years. We do have a handful of road course ringers in this race in some of the middle to lower end equipment cars so we will have to dissect their upside for each car/driver. There are a ton of top contenders in this race with the great road courses regulars in the series and there are a bunch of Cup regulars in this as well so the potential dominators this week is higher than usual.
Potential Dominators
Connor Zilisch
Shane Van Gisbergen
Ty Gibbs
AJ Allmendinger
Justin Allgaier
This is the first career race for Connor Zilisch but he went out in practice and was the fastest car in the field. He is a great road racer and looks like he could be the one to beat today. I think he is a top option and will be a great play for DFS today especially at his salary. SVG is a road course ace and is the far away favorite coming into the weekend for the Xfinity Series. He is usually the top option on road courses and will be a popular play this week. However, he wasn't as good in practice as usual and said they had some work to do to get their car better to have a chance to win. He also qualified outside the top 10. He is still a top option but this could be a good spot to fade him in big tournaments if he isn't as good in the past road races. Gibbs is another great road racer and comes down from the Xfinity Series to try to get a win this week. He is in top equipment and is usually a top 3 contender every time he is in the Series. He was one of the best cars in practice and will be a top contender up front for the lead. Allmendinger use to be the series road course star before SVG and is still fast on road courses. He does get in his own head sometimes if his car is not perfect but he liked his car in practice and had speed so I think he will be a good option this week. Allgaier is another Xfinity regular that is good on road courses and he looked really good in practice. He was one of the fastest cars on lap averages and went out and qualified 4th. He should be a good option for the race today as well and be a contender.
Place Differential Plays
Parker Kligerman
Ed Jones
Joey Logano
Kligerman is a good road racer and qualified outside the top 15 for the race. He had top 5 speed in practice and should be a good option to move forward and contend for a top 5 finish by the end of the day. Jones had a mechanical issue that they had to fix after practice so he did not get a chance to qualify. He will start in the back but he has a lot of road course experience and has had some good runs in the few races he has ran in this series. Logano is a huge question mark as they had brake issues in practice and qualifying and barely made the race. Assuming they get everything fixed he should have top 20 potential with upside for more. But he is in not great equipment so he will be limited on how well he will do today in my opinion.
Cheap Options
Josh Williams
Anthony Alfredo
Kyle Sieg
Ryan Ellis
Williams has had some good runs on road courses in his career and has a 7th and 12th in the two road courses he hasn't had issues at this season. He had a mechanical issue and will start in last so as long as they have the cart fixed he should have top 20 potential for this week and have huge place differential potential. Alfredo is a solid road racer and starts back in 24th. He could have top 15 potential but it will be about getting track position for some of these mid tier drivers.
Sieg and Ellis are more of flier plays but they do start in the back and if they can keep their cars clean they could be solid options for the race. They have top 25 upside if they can use some strategy to get through the field and avoid any wrecks today.
High Risk Low Owned Tournament Plays
Jesse Love
I think Love is a good option today as he isn't one of the top options you think of when you look for road course drivers. But he has had some decent runs this year and I think he will go overlooked as he starts 11th and could have a good run today if some of the top guys get caught up with issues.
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